This year there will be no Oktoberfest in München

Just came in the news.
Oktoberfest is cancelled this year.
This may be disappointing for many.
And this will cause economic problems too.

But for the young ones?
They might be really sad, no PARTY!

Not me, I dont like those events.
Too loud, too crowded.
But I am a minority and I accept those who like to visit.


We will all come to you Franz and have a beer festival in your basement.
I will bring snacks and disco lights.

1 Like

This would be a possibilty.
I am sure the breweries have already made the special beer for the Oktoberfest.
Should be many offers in the beverage stores in summer.
BUT attention. A little bit stronger than the normal.
Disco lights?
We will get confused.

But you, Paul, as a skilled bbq-er will get a job in our private “grill”


1 Like

I’ll bring my chefs hat

1 Like

Or this one? :joy:


1 Like

There have been canceled events everywhere. That doesn’t effect me though because I’m not a huge fan of going to parties and events myself either, but that is due to being an introvert.

1 Like

Really true Andrew?
A real introvert would never take part here at such a forum! :wink:
So I’m an introvert too.
Better to say a person who likes some kind of “understatement” always.
Other may be MORE IMPORTANT.
Sometimes such an importance leads into a total fall in unimportance.
And this is fatal for those VIPs

1 Like

Germany has done one of the best jobs of tracking and isolating people infected in the world, I think only South Korea has done a better job.

The downside is you have the fewest people immune.

A beerfest would just cause a lot of untraceable infections.

Once there is a reliable antibody test, then all those tested and shown immune can attend.

1 Like

There is a difference between real people and words on a screen. When I was little I would get panic attacks to the point I couldn’t hardly breathe, I would drip sweat and I became completely exhausted. I have gotten better since then, but I still have nobody that I even talk to on a regular basis other than family. And some of my family I dont even talk to.

1 Like

Now I understand much better.
But be sure were are a family here too and you can talk to us regulars frankly and free.
As much and as often you want.
Keep on Andrew! :smiley:

1 Like

I’m still trying to understand how it works.

  1. You get infected by the virus.
  2. Your body releases anti-body agents
  3. You get immuned to the virus
  4. Now you are free to go any where, no need to worry about the virus

The other way around:

  1. Don’t get infected (Lock-down)
  2. Your body is not prepared to release anti-bodies
  3. When Lock-down is released, you go out
  4. Get infected
  5. Get immuned to the virus
  6. Now you don’t need to worry about the virus

The whole idea of scenario 2 is to flatten the curve, meaning not to overwhelm the healthcare system, correct?

So we’re all learning, this bug was new to science in January, but it goes like this:

  • 20% who get infected have no symptons, not remotely ill.
  • 20% who get infected feel ill enough to need medical help. 90% of these have pre-existing conditions like lung, heart, diabetes, etc problems.
  • of the 20% about 20% need ventilators (ICU). So that’s about 4%.
  • of those who get to ICU, about 20% die (1%). The oxygen and the ventilators give the body a rest, it’s been fighting the disease for about 3-4 weeks on average by this stage.

So the lockdown is really to make the 4% who will need ICU have a place in hospital. So only 25% of them die. So only 1% die of population, not 4% die of population.

The lockdown is in part to isolate the vulnerable from the strong, delay infection while medical capacity ramps-up, big hospitals built rapidly, and so the 4% get a bed, so the 1% is not higher.

We’re all going to get infected anyway. 20% reading this will have no symptons, 60% feel ill then better, 20% want a doctor and 1% die.
The lockdown just means we individually have more chance of a hospital bed and the aid we need so we don’t die.

If we don’t do lockdown, medical care is overwhelmed and the 1% dead becomes nearer to 4%.

In UK the number in hospital has plateaued, there are thousands of spare beds, so UK is currently working out how to release up lockdown in a manner which slowly gets people infected who are stronger, get immunity, and eventually enough are immune to give the virus less places to go - herd immunity.

Of course there is a totally different alternative to lockdown, you don’t do it, deaths not 1% of population but around 4 times higher.

The typical background rate of death is about 1% a year, e.g. UK population 67 Million, 2019 had 618,000 deaths, so at 1% roughly speaking 80% of those who die would have died anyway in the next couple of years (those who smoke, ate too much, etc). So lockdown basically brings forwards the next year of deaths into the next few months.

If you don’t have lockdown then you have about 4 years of deaths in a compressed period, and then it’s mass graves, mass cremations, etc.

Personally I wished the build-out of medical facilities, pivoting manufacturing to medical provisions, had begun in January, not March.

What I personally did was:

  • I was always the strongest, so I moved to voluntary work, doing all the shopping and chores for those weaker.
  • this did put me at increased risk of catching, consciously knowing my chances of needing medical help is low, about 5% as I have no medical issues. I may need oxygen.
  • I probably have encountered this bug. If so, I am probably now immune. But I don’t know that.
  • So I leave the home washing my hands on the way out in case I recently was infected and no symptons. I do the shopping, I don’t touch my eyes, face. I return and wash my hands in case I am not immune and to down-the-sink wash any dosage away.
  • I separated the house into isolated living areas back in January-February. We all sleep alone.
  • I get shopping lists from those I help, I go out walking to buy. I get about 5 miles to 10 miles a day doing walking-shopping.
  • I walk with a 8.4" tablet and check and try to not walk into lampposts.
1 Like

Got it professor! So, no matter what you do, how you do, we all get it.
The swedes are taking the second approach, not to lockdown and let the herd immunity build up…


The Swedes had a highly invested healthcare system. As does Germany. The UK has been under-investing for years and needed 6 week lockdown to build capacity.

Controlled herd immunity is the more mature plan, but that needs a tight centrally controlled plan with social care systems.

No scenario I can construct bodes well for USA.

Wow that’s crazy! Everything has been cancelled lately for good reason. I’m currently waiting to hear if my school will come back in person for the fall semester or if we will continue online teaching for another semester. Fingers are crossed things get better so I can go to school in person again!

I remain of the view they should just swap 4th term with summer. So they stopped teaching in April then resume in July and teach through to September.

So you’re having your holidays now, at home.

Remote schooling penalises the poorer kids with no/worse computers.

My school took a week break to invest in computers to distribute to those who couldn’t afford their own. It’s crazy to try to learn some things at home. My labs are online which I feel like are not really the best because it’s not really me doing it anymore.

well try some different learning methods, invent something, then become the next Billionaire.

There are no such thing as problems, only opportunities in disguise.

Back to the cancelled Beerfest. What is the opportunity? Virtual beerfest?

1 Like

Totally understandable, there is always next year

1 Like